Baseball

[smc]

On August 7, I posted my predictions for the six Major League divisions. Now, 5 weeks later, and with the regular season quickly drawing to a close, it's time to face the music and see where things stand. Of course, things can and will still change in some divisions.

Here's what I predicted then. Let's start with the National League:

Originally Posted by smc

National League: East winner: Atlanta; Central winner: Cincinnati; West winner: San Francisco; Wild Card winner: San Diego.

Here are where things stand as of this writing, mid-afternoon on September 15. The Braves continue their skid, having lost this afternoon to the lowly Capitals. That means that Philadelphia is now 2-1/2 games ahead in the East. Meanwhile, the Giants are behind the Braves in the Wild Card Race, but only by 1 game, with San Diego having taken the lead in the West by 1-1-/2 games (and is tied with the Rockies in the 3rd inning of today's game, as I write). The Central Division is shaping up exactly as I predicted, and the Reds have a comfortable 7-game lead.

My revised predictions for the National League: East winner: Philadelphia (a change); Central winner: Cincinnati (unchanged); West winner: San Diego; Wild Card winner: San Francisco.

Hence, the only change in the list of four teams making it to the playoffs is to replace the Braves with the Phillies. If I am correct, I suspect Transjen will be pleased.

Here's what I predicted for the American League back on August 7:

Originally Posted by smc

American League: East winner: Tampa Bay; Central winner: Minnesota; West winner: Texas; Wild Card winner: Boston.

My prediction that Boston would take the Wild Card was predicated on two things. One was that the Yankees would have to have at least one period of extended under-.500 ball, since they had not to that date. Prior to last night's game, the Yankees had lost four in a row, the longest losing streak of the season for the Bronx Bombers. That came to an end in 10 innings last night. The other thing was a return to relative health for the Red Sox. Dustin Pedroia, so crucial to the Red Sox lineup, did return, only to go back on the disabled list after a couple of games. No team can endure the kinds of injuries the Sox have grappled with this season and play consisitently great ball, and yet the Sox stand at 17 games over .500. The Sox have used well more than 100 outfield lineups this season in 125 games -- just one example of the team's challenges.

I have to admit that the Sox playoff hopes are essentially non-existent. However, there is one hope: the Rays and the Yankees play each other several more times. If one of those two teams can win all the rest of the games, thus dropping the other team down in the standings consistently, and the Red Sox can play .750 ball between now and the end of the month, the Sox will sneak in. I will not make that prediction, however.

In the Central and West divisions, my predictions hold firm. Minnesota is 7 games ahead of the White Sox, and Texas is 9 games ahead of Oakland. As is always the case in the American League, the Wild Card will come from the East. Here are my revised predictions:

American League: East winner: Tampa Bay (unchanged); Central winner: Minnesota (unchanged); West winner: Texas (unchanged); Wild Card winner: New York (a change).

It won't be long before we can wrap up this baseball season and turn to hockey! Go Bruins! You have an epic choke to erase from our minds!