Middle East

[randolph]

The situation in Egypt is critical. The population has skyrocked the past 40 years. Egypt is running out of oil and can no longer export and now has to import oil. For years it has subsidized food and oil costs but it is descending deeper into debt. For years, we have poured money into to the country (80% of it to the military). Second only to Israel.
Ostensibly, Egypt is a secular Democracy, however, Mubarak and the military run the place. Opposition is severely repressed and no opposition party exists in a democratic sense.
Ila is right, if Mubarak leaves there could be a power vacuum leaving an opening for radicals. There are potential leaders out there but if the country descends into chaos all hell could break loose in the Middle East.

[SluttyShemaleAnna]

One good sign is that the military stated early on that they would not fire on protesters. They appear to be distancing themselves from Mubarak and the protesters don't see them as the enemy. This could be fairly crucial to the whole thing. If Mubarak goes soon, and the military support new elections, then they can keep the peace and keep the country stable and secure. The state apparatus in Egypt does have everything in place for being run democratically, all that really needs to change is for the elections not to be rigged. The crucial thing will be how long Mubarak takes before he gives in, the longer it is strung out, the more things will deviate from the normal running of things and the more unstable the country will get. Chaos is unlikely as long as the military continue to distance themselves from Mubarak and start to support democratic government. If the military and the people come to confrontation then there will be big trouble and definite chaos, but that isn't happening so far.

[randolph]

I am currently reading "The Middle East" by Bernard Lewis. He gives some perspective on what is now going on. The middle East has been a hot bed of wars for millenia. The biggest threat to Europe and Christianity was during the Ottoman empire centered in Turkey. they ruled much of the Middle east including Egypt for a time. Iran (Persia) remained independent. The Ottomans were primarily Sunni Muslims while the Persians were Shia. Interestingly, many Jews that were persecuted in Christian Europe went to Turkey and were accepted into the Ottoman empire and were treated better by the Muslims than by the Christians. The Ottomans repeatedly laid siege to Vienna but failed to break through. If they would have succeeded, we would all be Muslims.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by randolph

I am currently reading "The Middle East" by Bernard Lewis. He gives some perspective on what is now going on. The middle East has been a hot bed of wars for millenia. The biggest threat to Europe and Christianity was during the Ottoman empire centered in Turkey. they ruled much of the Middle east including Egypt for a time. Iran (Persia) remained independent. The Ottomans were primarily Sunni Muslims while the Persians were Shia. Interestingly, many Jews that were persecuted in Christian Europe went to Turkey and were accepted into the Ottoman empire and were treated better by the Muslims than by the Christians. The Ottomans repeatedly laid siege to Vienna but failed to break through. If they would have succeeded, we would all be Muslims.

And if Napoleon had nuclear subs we would all be speaking French.

[randolph]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And if Napoleon had nuclear subs we would all be speaking French.

Yes, and if the Nazis had nuclear subs we would all be dead.

Speaking of nuclear. As far as I know,Egypt has no nuclear stuff. Israel, Pakistan and India have bombs and Iran wants one. I worry more about Pakistan than any of the others. An uprising there is likely to result in a radical Islamic takeover with abombs and rockets at there disposal.
Our drones popping off a terrorist here and there aren't going to be much help if that happens.