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Nobody on here would ever turn you down Fran!

[franalexes]

Originally Posted by aw9725

Nobody on here would ever turn you down Fran!

Could you do a probability chart on that? Make it a class project.

Originally Posted by franalexes

Could you do a probability chart on that? Make it a class project.

OK. Consider it done!

[smc]

Originally Posted by franalexes

Could you do a probability chart on that? Make it a class project.

I'm game. Are we talking Bayesian probability? Frequentist probability?

I'm thinking a "poisson" distribution. Lambda would be the number of people who would turn her down (which in this case would be very small). It's late but I will work up something quick in Excel.

Back in a sec...

[smc]

Originally Posted by aw9725

I'm thinking a "poisson" distribution. Lambda would be the number of people who would turn her down (which in this case would be very small). It's late but I will work up something quick in Excel.

Back in a sec...

It doesn't need the complexity of Poisson distribution. The number of discrete events, after all, is only two: date / not date.

[smc]

Originally Posted by aw9725

I though we were talking about "numbers" who would/wouldn't. If it's "binary" then it's easy-- 100% would 0% wouldn't. I stand by my original work. Thought it was just for fun anyway...

Your "original work" is worthy of being stood by. I was just messin' with you about the "dates" being "events" ... and you picked up on my point precisely: 100% would, 0% wouldn't. If the numbers came out any different, we'd be dealing with non-humans, I'm guessing, that had been mis-programmed (?).

No problem! I was making it "harder" than it had to be anyway just for fun. You should be getting my PM soon. Nice to meet you smc!

Now it's time for bed--we are under a "Winter Storm Warning." Maybe no class tomorrow!

Assuming Lambda = .01. Using Excel's "Poisson" function yields:

0 0.9900498
1 0.0099005
2 0.0000495
3 0.0000002
4 0.0000000
5 0.0000000

So the probability of "no one" turning Fran down is greater than 99%. The probability of "one or more unfortunate souls" turning her down is less than one percent. If I had more time I could do something much better but gotta go in early tomorrow!

Looking good Fran!

[shooter_2403]

Originally Posted by franalexes

Could you do a probability chart on that? Make it a class project.

I'm sure the probability would be to your favorite cause they'd be an idoit to turn you down.

[smc]

Originally Posted by shooter_2403

I'm sure the probability would be to your favorite cause they'd be an idoit to turn you down.

Check the other posts in this thread. The probability has already been determined, after some serious back and forth from the boring academics here (myself included) about the form the analysis would take.