[randolph]

My thoughts

When Bush was getting ready to invade Iraq, an adviser was talking to him about Sunnis and Shias. Supposedly Bush said “I thought they were all Muslims”.

The schism within the Muslim religion between the Sunni and the Shia is the source of much of the discord in the Middle East. The origin of this split occurred after the death of Mohammed. Who was to carry on his work? One group wanted Mohammed’s family members to continue his legacy, they became the Shia. The other side believed the leaders of the Muslim movement at the time of Mohammed’s death should continue his legacy. This split was originally political but over time it also became religious.

In the absence of Western influence, particularly the US, these two Muslim groups within Islam would likely be fighting each other anyway. A lot of it has to do with political power. In Iraq before our invasion, the Sunni’s ruled Iraq even though they were a minority. We imposed a Shia government and the Sunni regularly bomb Shia sites.

The most financially powerful Middle Eastern country, Saudi Arabia, is Sunni and enforces Sharia law and no other religions are legal. Iran also has Sharia law but it’s not as extreme as in Saudi Arabia. With the exception of Iran, the Sunni’s have more economic and political power in the Middle East. Historically, the two sides of Islam have been kept from each other’s throats by a secular strongman, ie, Saddam (Iraq), Kaddafi (Libya), Mubarak (Egypt), Assad (Syria), etc.

With the demise of the autocratic rulers, a power vacuum is created and all the various politically orientated groups rush in to gain power. Of course, we would like a secular democratic government that respects human rights, be established in these countries. In Libya there is some optimism in this respect. In the other Arab Spring countries, democracy and human rights may be a long way off. The emergence of a powerful military backed leader that imposes a secular lid on religious infighting is a likely alternative. So then, we are back where we started.