With September call-ups (a stupid MLB rule) less than a month away, and real races in all but one of the six combine AL and NL divisions, it seems like a good time to write a brief assessment of where things stand and, I hope, provoke some discussion in this rather moribund thread. These notes are, of course, one man's opinion; I profess no more or less baseball knowledge than the other regulars in the thread. The only advantage I bring to the discussion is my ability to recognize that baseball is the greatest sport humans have ever invented, something my Canadian friends seem to think is a description of another very great game sport that involves sticks, pucks, and ice.
(There ... that ought to provoke discussion if the rest of this post fails.)
Remember, this is just opinion.
National League
Once again, the National League is giving us tremendously competitive divisional pennant races, just like last year, when the Wild Card was up for grabs down to the wire. It's also been fun to watch Joey Votto of the Reds chase the Triple Crown, although I think his RBI production has fallen off to the point where that chase is all but over. There is still time for Albert Pujols to boost his average and perhaps win the Triple Crown he so richly deserves, assuming Votto, Polanco, Gonzales and others drop a bit to help him out. The Triple Crown is, in my opinion, a symbol of the pre-steroids era, and it would be good for baseball for someone to win it again; it hasn't been done since 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski followed Frank Robinson from the previous season to make it two seasons in a row.
In the divisions, I think the East will go to Atlanta. The Phillies are doing remarkably well without Howard, Utley, and Victorino, but I think they'll fade just enough to let Atlanta slip in. The Central is anyone's call. St. Louis has the better pitching, and Cincinnati has the better offense. I give a slight edge to the Reds. In the West, I look for the Giants to surge. It's a gut feeling, and could be based on nothing more than the fact that I've always liked their uniform colors. I think the Wild Card is likely to be a West division team, so if my San Francisco prediction is correct the Padres will be going to the post-season.
American League
In a perfect baseball world, there would be some kind of reconstruction of the American League so that the East division isn't the home of what are usually the three best teams. It is ridiculous that the Blue Jays are 5 games over .500 and in fourth place, but would be in second place in the West.
The AL also has a Triple Crown possibility: Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers. I think he has the best chance in the Majors.
In the divisions, the West appears to be a runaway for the Texas Rangers. I think Texas will be very strong in the post-season, especially if the weather is unseasonably hot for their home games in Arlington. The Central is anyone's call. The Twins are formidable, and they have guys who can carry an entire team. Ozzie Guillen could always have some kind of meltdown that sows dissension in his clubhouse and screws the White Sox and their chances to win.
Being a Red Sox fan, I must reserve my most detailed assessment for the East. I want to be realistic. The Red Sox have taken a tremendous hit this season from all the injuries. Losing Kevin Youkilis for the season is a devastating blow. And yet, the Sox are one of baseball's most resilient teams, in part because Francona really knows how to manage a team as a team, and in part because of the strength of the minor league teams from which the Sox can bring up replacements. That said, I think this weekend's series with the Yankees is make-or-break (assuming that the Yankees and Rays don't implode on their own). The Sox victory last night was important, and the pitching matchups favor Boston on Sunday and Monday. If the Sox split the series, they are still in the running until the next big challenge. If the Sox take 3 of 4, that would be great. If the Sox sweep, the Yankees are toast.
The Rays are cruising along, and I see no reason to doubt that they will be in the thick of it up to the end. Most likely, they'll win the division. The Yankees' loss of Andy Pettite until late August, at best, is a huge blow. I don't think they've realized it yet. I also think the Yankees are in line for an injury to another key player; I'm not wishing for it, but it seems that when you have so many veterans, you ought to expect that to happen.
The Wild Card will come down to the Yankees, White Sox/Twins, and the Red Sox (the latter if they do well this weekend and keep up.
Recap
So, to recap, here's what I think things will look like at the end, based on an assessment today, August 7, 2010, at 10:20 am EST.
American League: East winner: Tampa Bay; Central winner: Minnesota; West winner: Texas; Wild Card winner: Boston.
National League: East winner: Atlanta; Central winner: Cincinnati; West winner: San Francisco; Wild Card winner: San Diego.