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Old 10-20-2008
rhythmic delivery
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Default credit crunch?

this is the first time in my adult life i've witnessed a recesion. for about two years now i've been hearing about it but i'm only starting to feel the efects now. i'm scared, most of all because i've no expierience of this happening before. i don't know how bad it is in comparison to other recesions, i don't know how loing it will last, or whether it will get worse, or what if anything can be done to fix it. can anyone shed anylight on the sittuation?
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Old 10-21-2008
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Default credit crunch

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Originally Posted by rhythmic delivery View Post
this is the first time in my adult life i've witnessed a recesion. for about two years now i've been hearing about it but i'm only starting to feel the efects now. i'm scared, most of all because i've no expierience of this happening before. i don't know how bad it is in comparison to other recesions, i don't know how loing it will last, or whether it will get worse, or what if anything can be done to fix it. can anyone shed anylight on the sittuation?
Hi Rythmic, Although this is the biggest 'global financial meltdown' we have seen, it's unprecedented that the worlds leading central banks have expressed their support in financial backing for the leading institutions. It would take hours to explain the situation in detail but basically: The money is still there (e.g. in the US federal bank) and the real losers are 1) people who bought their homes after the huge cash injection by the US government after 9/11 to boost the economy...house prices boomed out of control. 2) sadly, the investors that have their additional pension schemes tied to fonds. They have lost around on average 20,000 gb pounds, 34,000 usd or 50,000 aus $. The only good news is that China and India (and indeed the whole of Asia) have realised they need to support the West due to the fact, they are wholly dependent on the western nations for their growth and success . This recession will be more of a slow-down because too many nations are involved and the stakes are high. It's like the long over-inflated financial bubble has been pricked more than it burst. Don't worry too much buddy. Rgds Lba
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Old 10-21-2008
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It's difficult to compare this recession cycle to previous, largely because we have such a globalized economy right now. The "Great Depression" was categorized not so much by it's instantaneous down-turn in markets, but by its length-- nearly a decade of depressed growth. Also, the crash of 1929 was not quite so systemic in terms of worldwide ramifications; today, markets are so intertwined, that (unlike in the Great Depression) what happens here is VERY likely to affect markets in Europe, Asia, etc. (We see this trend with the banking bailouts, the majority of toxic investments being here, stateside on the US.) In this current cycle, we have AT LEAST had a more proactive group of world leaders, looking to stem the tide against recession; that is something lacking in previous recession cycles.

Percentage-speaking, recent downturns don't compare to the Black Monday of October 1987, but I would have to say, markets are at an all time high in terms of volatility. The VIX tracks market volatility, it's one indicator of market health, and in one month, the indice jumped 189%-- not a good thing. Nobody is truly confident right now, and for the past weeks, markets have operated completely outside of fundamentals, and instead on consumer psycholology-- a dangerous ground to be on. Either way, previous crises such as the savings and loan of 1990 and the crash in 1987 just don't seem to have the same gravity of this financial crisis. I'm not saying this is the worst in our generation necessarily, but that the fundamentals are SO VERY different from anything we've seen before. And that sentiment comes not only from me, but from relatives who have actually lived through the Great Depression.

Personally, I don't think we will be in for as long of a protracted growth as in the 1930's, but a global slowdown seems imminent. That said, save some extra cash, be prudent in your spending, and start buying into the markets. I know I'm buying right now as opposed to selling...It's the only logical thing to do.
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