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#1
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Any Investors in this market?
Just curious if anyone else traded or was into investing? This is a fun, if volatile market to trade in...But I think it presents great opportunities. The hard part is calling bottom!
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#2
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Yes, I watch my "goodies" go down and down where it stops nobody knows. My port.. is still green and the yields are looking better every day. So I have reluctant to sell so far.
__________________
"Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." R.N. |
#3
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Real estate maybe...
I am considering buying another home and renting my current one out (or vice-versa). Just seems like a great time to buy if a person is financially stable. As far as stocks/funds, Iam just playing safe and holding on to what I have left and hope it starts to grow again!
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#4
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Real estate?
Quote:
__________________
"Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." R.N. |
#5
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Quote:
Anyway, where I live the houses are holding their value a little better, so I feel that this might be a good time. |
#6
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I don't own a home, but I certainly play the different markets. I've had some DOW futures contracts that I had short, and they paid well this week. I've been hedgeing that general bet with long plays in some DOW blue-chips like GE, KFT, JNJ, MCD, etc. The P/E ratio is phenomenal on many of these blue-chips...But I have no idea where bottom is...So I've been slowly buying in during the past few weeks to reduce my exposure. Still, I like the VERY long prospects on many of these companies...After all, 100 shares of MCD bought back in the 1960's for $2,250 would be worth $4.6 million today after all the splits and dividend-reinvests. I'm not sure what the DOW will do next week...I'm suspicious of a bear trap, so I'm reducing my short exposure towards long...
But damn, I've had some metal plays which have payed off handsomely. Roughly 17% gains in just a few months of metal positions. Not bad given the direction of stocks these days... |
#7
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Banks
If the banks can get stabilized soon and start lending more money, that would help a lot. Also, the real estate market has to turn around. Here in S. calif. prices are still going down, 50% plus from the peak. Sales are starting to pick up. The big problem hanging over real estate is the home equity loans (home ATM machines) that were so popular here recently. Some homeowners had skimmed over $800,000 out of their homes before losing it.
__________________
"Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." R.N. |
#8
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Quote:
http://michellemalkin.com/2009/02/25...osure-victims/ http://michellemalkin.com/2009/02/23...-poster-child/ Earlier this week, ACORN activists broke into a foreclosed home in Baltimore. With a mob cheering and camera crew taping, ACORN leader Louis Beverly busted a padlock and jimmied the door open at 315 South Ellwood Ave. The home once belonged to restaurant worker Donna Hanks, who assailed her evil bank for raising her mortgage by $300 and leaving her on the street. "This is our house now," Beverly declared with Hanks by his side at the break-in. What ACORN didn't tell you: Hanks' house was sold in June 2008 for $192,000. She bought the two-story home in the summer of 2001 for $87,000. At some point during the next five years, she re-financed the original home loan for $270,000. Where did all that money go? (Hint: Think house-sized ATM.) * * * * * * The paper also shilled for ubiquitous ACORN foreclosure "victim" Veronica Peterson of Columbia, Md., recycling uncritically her accusation that she had been tricked into buying a $545,000 home by a broker who inflated her income and misrepresented her assets. "These loans were weapons of mass destruction," the single mom of three and home daycare provider who couldn't keep up with her mortgage bills told the Post reporter. "They destroyed our credit, our lives, and they blew up in our face.'" But a look at court and real estate records exposed the truth. Edward Ericcson, Jr., a reporter for the independent Baltimore City Paper discovered that the "victim" - who took out a full mortgage with no down payment on a house she couldn't afford - looks more like a predatory borrower. And amazingly, Peterson lived in the home more than year without paying rent or mortgage. The foreclosure was filed in July 2007. "The balance on the main note then was $435,735.86," Ericcson reporters, plus unpaid interest and late fees - suggesting she made at most one payment on the house. "Had she made all of her payments, Peterson would have spent about $64,335 so far. Had she rented a similar place, she would have been charged around $2,500 per month-a total of $47,500 - since January 2007. Instead, she apparently paid nothing." And yet THESE are examples of people the media is crying a river for and saying we need to bail them out with OUR money. |
#9
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Quote:
On Friday the big news was how Citibank had plunged to under $2 a share, and the running joke on TV was how their ATM fees were now worth more than a share of their stock. But Citibank isn't going anywhere. Hell, it's getting a government bailout. At $2 a share, even if it goes back to $4 you've doubled your money. Now imagine in 20 years it goes back to its highs in the 60, 70, 80 dollar range -- where you'd literally make 40 TIMES your investment. So your analogy to MCD is correct. Right now, for the smart investor or for someone willing to spread some investment money around a little bit, they're going to wake up years from now with a big smile on their face. |
#10
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I'm with you CreativeMind, but I'm personally scared by some of the obtuse nature of the current administration. There has been LOTS of speculation of bank nationalization...And I'm not PER SAY opposed to that. I just want more information about WHAT government interests will spell for stock???!!! As of the past 48 hours, some of the government's preferred shares have been converted to common shares, increasing the government's stake to 36%! Now, that obviously leads to common shareholder dilution, which is likely to depress prices further. I'm with you, I DON'T think Citi is going anywhere, but I wish I had emphatic or contractual guarantees about what happens to common shares as the bank gets more bought out by the government!
Regarding other companies...I'm long in GE right now, despite their recent slashing of the dividend by 68%. I actually think that GE is one of the more responsible corporations, because they are doing everything they can to preserve capital so as to maintain their AAA credit rating. It's painful for me as a shareholder to have a dividend cut, but I think it's the lesser of evils (dividend cut versus long-term sustainability). Similarly, I expect many DOW and S&P companies to trim dividends...I've alread seen this trend happen in dividend yields that were over-valued relative to market-caps... That said, I still think this is a GREAT market to play. I'm not going to begin to call bottom...I have no idea where it will be! But one hedged way to nibble at the bottom is to assume long plays in stock that you suspect will drop further (but remain strong in the OVERALL economy). At the same time, sell a bear-call set of options which will create a vertical credit spread. If the stock continues to drop, you have the vertical credit spread that is created by the options to partially offset losses. Thus, equity losses is minimized. If the equity moves against bearish sentiments, well...You have the benefit of increased appreciation in the equity! Meanwhile, the (non-bearish) gains begin to cancel out the vertical credit of the options. It's a very hedged way of testing bottom...The biggest negative is that you have three brokerage fees for every position, as opposed to one for a naked position. I wouldn't begin to recommend this strategy in just any market, but in a market where we are questioning bottom, and nibbling on stocks which might fall further...I think the long/bear-call-credit-spread options is a sensible way to hedge market movements while increasing exposure to stocks which you think are good for the very long! |
#11
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Time to buy?
Are any of you guys looking at environmental stocks? Presumably, a lot of money is going to be available for solar, wind, geothermal, algae and other alternatives. Of course a lot will depend on oil prices.
__________________
"Man's capacity for justice makes democracy possible; but man's inclination to injustice makes democracy necessary." R.N. |
#12
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Alt-eneregy has been eaten up and spit out along with just about every other stock in this market. Back when I speculated that we had bottomed out in November I was more optimistic on the alt-energy front. I think the sector (broadly speaking) will benefit from this administration, but it's a sector that generally has a lot of small cap companies that have been completely decimated by market conditions. I read a recent article at MarketWatch about $300/barrel oil. Now in fairness, I was a HARSH critic of said article, but I think oil is definitely set for a long-term rise, if only tied to inflation here in the US. On a long play, I actually like some of the oil bastards...I think they've begun to see the "writing on the wall," and are now invested in trying to further their interests beyond peak oil. The one thing about oil companies is that they pay dividends (not necessarily phenomenal ones), but for a long-call, I MUCH prefer that exposure to something like USO, or some other futures-based ETF. For short-term trading, stick with derivative ETF's and profit. But those ETF's never pay out divies, so stay away for the long.
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#13
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Citi
I bought 1K of Citi. Monday at $1.25, so far so good.
Profit taking is likely soon. |
#14
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I gotta say I am very happy with my volatile investments. Put my $$$ in various banking stocks, and up anywhere from 50%-100% on my portfolio. Got Citi at $1. Granted I made some mistakes too, but overall I'm up! Get some of the banking stocks. I think Citi is a good buy (hopefully not a goodbye). But neah, I think it will be around. Just my 2 cents. Now I wish I invested more than chump change. Nothing that will let me retire, but...could have, should have, but I didn't.
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#15
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Over time, this is still a buying opportunity. Traditional winners are on FireSale and over time, they will have to
perform. Now, if that is a year out or ten, I cannot say. But, it is time to buy. If I pick enough winners, the day job is gone and it is fantasy life style time!!! -mS |
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